科技部專題研究計畫主持人
MOST 108-2410-H-004-152-SS2
「公投綁選舉」之投票效應分析
Concurrent Voting of Referendums and Candidate Elections
科技部
Ministry of Science and Technology
國立政治大學政治學系
National Chengchi University Department of Political Science
黃紀
Chi Huang
國立政治大學政治學系
National Chengchi University Department of Political Science
熊倬漢
專任研究助理
(02)29393091#51668
joe941230@gmail.com
計畫執行期間起:2019-08-01
計畫執行期間迄:2022-01-31
2019-12-03,2020-01-14
2019-12-08,2020-01-19
全台灣人口
1
002
01
公民投票、議題投票、公職選舉、一致與分裂投票、直接民主、競選策略
referendum and citizen initiative, issue voting, candidate elections, split-ticket voting, direct democracy, campaign strategies
本計畫的目的,在以實證方法探討2018年11月「公投綁選舉」(即「公民投票」與「公職選舉投票」在同一日舉行)所引發的投票效應,包括18歲以上未滿20歲的「公投首投族」之投票參與;20歲以上的公職選民在「公投綁選舉」時,其公投與公職選舉之投票參與、投票抉擇是否有連動之影響;以及2019年新修訂之公投法將公投與公職選舉脫勾,其對投票參與、投票抉擇之影響。 有鑒於此,本兩年期研究計畫的目的有二:首先,在學理及方法方面,發展可連貫公投議題投票和公職候選人投票的學理,更深入探討選民同時面對創制或複決之議題投票和公職之候選人投票時,對其投票參與和抉擇間的互動關係。在方法上,則充分運用以村里為單位的人口特徵及選舉之集體數據,結合定群追蹤調查訪問蒐集的個體政治態度與行為資料,搭配網路社群媒體蒐集下載的言論網絡及聲量資料,檢證學理提出的互動假設。其次,在研究議題方面,將上述學理及三種類型的實證資料,應用於「公投綁選舉」的投票效應分析,回答下列問題:1. 公投與選舉併選,對個別選民的參與及整體投票率的實際影響為何?2. 當立場相反之公投案均成案時,選民對這類型公投案之投票模式為何?3. 當有政黨/候選人發起或對公投議題表態時,選民在該議題與該候選人間是否一併考量,還是各自分隔互不干涉?4. 於2019年新修之公投法,將公投與公職選舉脫勾各自單獨舉行,對投票參與、投票抉擇之效應為何?
This research project plans to develop a unified theory and methodology to analyze concurrent referendums/initiatives and candidate elections. The topics include the extent to which the first-time voters between 18 and 20 years old participate in such elections and how regular voters make their voting decisions while facing multiple ballots. Also, this research project aims to explore the results of non-contemporary referendums/initiatives and candidate elections. Thus, this two-year research project has two objectives: 1. In terms of theory and methods: This project will develop a unified a unified theory and methodology to analyze concurrent referendums/initiatives and candidate elections and take into account their possible interactions. To test the theory, this project has collected the aggregate-level data, the panel telephone survey data, and will collect the social media data through internet scraping during the second year. 2. In terms of applied research: This project will apply multilevel model and causal inference methods to the above-mentioned three types of data to answer the following questions: whether and how the concurrent elections affect the voter turnout rates? How voters make their voting decisions when facing opposite referendum proposals? How the issue voting and candidate voting decisions interact with each other? What are the consequences for voter participation if the referendums/initiatives voting and candidate elections are held separately?
否,無直接識別資料
除檢查有無可識別個人身份資料外,另檢查個案編號是否重複、變項及選項數值說明是否與問卷一致或未被定義,發現前述狀況時,將於確認後協助修改。
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