科技部專題研究計畫主持人
MOST 107-2410-H-005-003-SSS
文藻礁或天然氣-以觀塘第3天然氣接收站替代方案為例
Algae Reef or Natural Gas–A Case Study of the Third Gas Receiving Station at Kwun-Tong
科技部
Ministry of Science and Technology
國立中興大學應用經濟學系(所)
Department of Applied Economics, National Chung-Hsing University
曾偉君
Wei-Chun Tseng
國立中興大學應用經濟學系(所)
Department of Applied Economics, National Chung-Hsing University
曾偉君
教授
02-22840350 Ext. 203
tweichun@nchu.edu.tw
計畫執行期間起:2018-08-01
計畫執行期間迄:2019-07-31
2019-03-28
2019-05-08
臺灣地區(不含金馬)之成人
1
001
01
條件評估法; 正反方的願付價值; Turnbull estimator
contingent valuation; negative willingness to pay; Turnbull estimator
桃園觀塘第3天然氣接收站替代方案, 是我國極重要的建設,但它會破壞珍貴的藻礁。它始自上屆政府穩健減核的配套規劃,且攸關本屆政府非核家園目標是否能達成。在能源安全, 經濟發展, 及降低PM 2.5方面, 有重大益處。2017年8月, 我國發電的單日備載容量率曾降到1.72%之低點。若第三接收站於2022年無法如期供氣,當年備轉容量率將減少2.6%,而無法達到備轉容量率10%的供電穩定目標。 但觀塘地區的藻礁有瀕危的柴山多杯孔珊瑚, 這是台灣52種瀕臨絕種野生動物之一,因此很珍貴. (台灣的珊瑚類另有一種瀕臨絕種: 福爾摩沙偽絲珊瑚). 此外, 當地造礁生物本身亦有數種特有種,甚且有等待被定名的台灣新種章魚等生物。 第3天然氣接收站替代方案的支持者和反對者都非常有影響力,因此本研究擬使用願付價值(WTP)來顯示雙方面意見的強度,以幫助決策。首先將詢問受訪者贊成或反對,然後贊成者和反對者分別被詢問二元選擇願付價值的問題。接著本研究使用turnbull無母數估計法, 估計兩類型受訪者的願付價值(willingness to pay; WTP).
The Third Gas Receiving Station at Kwun-Tong, located in Taoyuan county, is an extremely important construction in our country, but it will destroy precious algal reefs. It started from the previous government\'s plan of prudent nuclear reduction and it is at stake whether the goal of this government\'s nonnuclear homeland can be reached. There are major benefits to energy security, economic development, and PM 2.5 reduction. In August 2017, the single-day reserved capacity rate of power generation in Taiwan dropped to only 1.72%. If the Third Gas Receiving Station can not supply gas as scheduled in 2022, the reserved capacity will decrease by 2.6% in that year, failing to reach the power supply stability target of 10% of the reserved capacity. However, the algae reefs in the Kwun Tong area are endangered Chai Shan multi-hole coral, which is one of Taiwan\'s 52 species of endangered wild animals and is therefore very valuable. (Taiwan\'s has another coral species on the verge of extinction: Formosa seudogelloides. In addition, there are several endemic species of reef building creatures themselves, and there are also the new species of octopus waiting to be named. Both Proponents and Opponents of the 3rd Natural Gas Station are very influential, so this study intends to use WTP to show the strength of both opinions to help decision-making. First, the respondents will be asked to agree or disagree with the project, and then the pros and the opponents will be asked separately about the willingness to pay for the dual options. This study uses the Turnbull estimator to estimate the wingness-to-pay (WTP) of two groups of respondents, respectively.
Chen, Y.-J.; Hsu, S.M.; Liao, S.-Y.; Chen, T.-C.; Tseng, W.-C. Natural Gas or Algal Reef: Survey-Based Valuations of Pro-Gas and Pro-Reef Groups Specifically for Policy Advising. Energies 2019, 12, 4682.

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