科技部專題研究計畫主持人
MOST-106-2410-H-019-018-SSS
提升道路交通安全之機車減量策略
Motorcycle reduction strategies for improving road traffic safety
科技部
Ministry of Science and Technology
國立臺灣海洋大學河海工程學系
Dept. Harbor & River Engineering, NTOU
蕭再安
Tzay-An Shiau
國立臺灣海洋大學河海工程學系
Dept. Harbor & River Engineering, NTOU
楊皓
研究生
0916904406
killmicheal@ymail.com
計畫執行期間起:2017-08-01
計畫執行期間迄:2018-07-31
2017-08-01
2018-07-31
以107年本國籍人口為母體
1
001
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機車;運具選擇模式;前景理論;概略集合理論; 決策規則
Motorcycle; modal choice model; prospect theory; rough sets theory (RST); decision rules
台灣民眾普遍且強烈依賴機車做為交通工具;機車的使用率高,加上騎乘機車的脆弱性,使得大幅減少道路交通肇事變成一件困難的工作。過去在改善機車騎乘安全方面做了許多努力,然而機車肇事死亡人數所佔比例仍一直居首位,2017年的統計數字顯示,機車肇事死亡人數所佔比例達42.5%(總死亡人數1,517人,機車占644人)。 本研究以兩階段問卷調查方式進行,第一階段針對有車禍經驗的機車騎士來調查,有效問卷共53份。統計分析結果顯示,騎乘機車發生車禍後,選擇不再騎乘機車者只佔9%;從另一方面觀察,其實受訪者仍有察覺騎乘機車之風險,這也證實了前景理論(Prospecttheory)的說法,也就是多數民眾在面對損失時,表現風險趨向型的態度。 第二階段問卷調查的對象是18歲以上之一般民眾,抽樣調查總計得到300份有效問卷。經由統計分析結果顯示,政策支持度前3名的對策包括(1)機車須比照汽車進行定期檢查;搭配概略集合理論(Roughsetstheory,RST)所歸納的決策規則,政府行銷對象可鎖定以機車為主要運具的民眾。(2)強制機車安裝行車紀錄器,或將行車紀錄器安裝於安全帽上;搭配RST所歸納的決策規則,政府行銷對象可不分性別。(3)於雨天騎乘機車時須穿著符合國家標準CNS10516之雨衣;搭配RST所歸納的決策規則,政府行銷對象可不分性別。 至於可以降低騎乘機車意願的前3名包括(1)限制機車在一般道路中不得於同車道超越或併駛行駛中之車輛;搭配RST所歸納的決策規則,政府行銷對象可鎖定不以機車為主要運具的民眾。(2)限制必須至少持有機車駕照滿3個月,且期間無違規紀錄才能搭載乘客;搭配RST所歸納的決策規則,政府行銷對象可鎖定24歲以上的民眾。(3)於駕照考驗階段新增潛在風險判讀測驗;搭配RST所歸納的決策規則,政府行銷對象可鎖定具有機車駕照的民眾。
Taiwanese people rely heavily on motorcycles for traveling. The high number of motorcycle users, combined with vulnerability of motorcycle riders in traffic, makes significantly reducing road traffic accidents a difficult task. Strategies to improve the traffic safety of motorcyclists have been implemented regularly. However, motorcyclist fatalities still maintain the largest proportion of traffic accidents; in 2017, motorcyclist fatalities comprised 42.5 % (644) of the total fatalities (1,517) caused by traffic accidents. This study takes two-stage survey. At the first stage survey, we interviewed 53 samples who experienced traffic accident. The statistical results revealed that only 9% of respondents gave up riding motorcycle after the accident. In contrast, they also realized the risk of riding motorcycle. This phenomenon follows the description of the prospect theory; i.e., people always perform risk-seeking attitude when facing losses. At the second stage survey, random sampling of the adults (above 18 years old) collected 300 respondents. The statistical results showed that the top three strategies regarding high policy supporting are the followings: 1.Periodical motorcycle inspection; the policy promotion could be focused on people using motorcycle as a major mode based on the decision rules; 2.Dashboard camera installation; the policy promotion could be focused on anybody based on the decision rules; 3.Dressing raincoat in the rain, which meets national standard of CNS 10516; the policy promotion could be focused on anybody based on the decision rules. Regarding the willingness of mode shifting, the top three strategies are the followings: 1.No overtaking at the same traffic lane; the policy promotion could be focused on people using non-motorcycle as a major mode based on the decision rules; 2.Rigorous constraints attached with motorcycle carrying passengers; the policy promotion could be focused on people above 24 years old based on the decision rules; 3.Additional test regarding potential risk judgment; the policy promotion could be focused on people with motorcycle driving license based on the decision rules.
否,無直接識別資料
除檢查有無隱私資料外,另檢查個案編號是否重複、變項及選項數值說明是否與問卷一致或未被定義。
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