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E98007
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016
以劇變模型分析高速公路實施擁擠收費之駕駛人路線移轉行為
A Catastrophe Model for Analyzing Drivers\' Pre-trip Route Choice Behavior to the Congestion Charging on Freeway
1.郭奕妏
1.Yi-wen Kuo
1.樹德科技大學運籌管理系
1.Logistics Management, Shu-Te University
001,002,003,004
1.樹德科技大學運籌管理系
1.Logistics Management, Shu-Te University
002
1.行政院國家科學委員會
1.National Science Council
A.14 計畫執行期間(起):2009-08-01
A.14 計畫執行期間(訖):2010-07-31
2009-10-012009-12-31
A.16 收到日期:2010-09-13
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1

1121


1121
001,007
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C.2 聯絡日期:0000-00-00
2
1.樹德科技大學運籌管理系
1.Logistics Management, Shu-Te University
1
C.7 資料公開日期:2012-08-01
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008
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001
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1.尖點劇變模型
2.移轉障礙
3.路線移轉行為
4.擁擠收費
1.Congestion Charging
2.Cusp Catastrophe Model
3.Route Switching Behavior
4.Switching Barrier
 未來高速公路全面實施電子計程收費後,在收費技術可行的前提下,為有效落實擁擠管理,可配合推動擁擠收費政策。本研究應用尖點劇變模型探究小汽車駕駛人 在假設性擁擠通行費率情境下之路線移轉行為,並瞭解其可能存在的非線性特徵。研究針對臺灣西部高速公路小汽車駕駛人進行問卷調查,共蒐集1,121份有效 樣本。透過定量與定性分析方法,選定路線移轉行為作為狀態變數,單位通行費率與移轉障礙則分別為控制變數中之正則因子與分裂因子,校估出四種擁擠情境下之 路線移轉行為模型,並檢定控制空間中六個區域的樣本結構分佈比例的差異性,進一步解釋駕駛人路線移轉行為產生之發散性、突變性、滯後性與雙重性等劇變特 徵。當駕駛人認知的移轉障礙較高,且在擁擠通行費率每公里訂為1.2及1.5元時,路線移轉行為最易發生不連續變化現象。

This study aims to analyze drivers’ response to the implementation of congestion charging on freeway, and to explore its effect on drivers’ pre-trip route choice behavior. This study will conduct a survey of which the questionnaire is designed through stated preference approach. The survey target groups are constrained to drivers commuting in Northern Taiwan, the midst of Taiwan, and Southern Taiwan. From this survey, we can extract significant factors influencing drivers’ diversion intention to the congestion charging strategy on freeway via factor analysis, and explore the relationship between these factors by using structural equation modeling approach. Finally, the cusp catastrophe model will be applied for analyzing drivers’ stated pre-trip route choice behavior under several congestion charging scenarios. The results of this study can assist the traffic management agencies to evaluate and implement the congestion charging strategies and travel demand management plans in order to reduce the traffic congestion during peak-hours on freeway.

D.16 完成檢誤日期:2011-03-01
D.17 預定釋出日期:2012-08-01
D.18 初次釋出日期:2012-08-01
D.19_1 最新版釋出日期:2012-08-01
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10.6141/TW-SRDA-E98007-1
https://efenci.srda.sinica.edu.tw/webview/index.jsp?object=https://efenci.srda.sinica.edu.tw:80/obj/fStudy/E98007
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