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E95052
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台灣民眾之政策偏好與政治行為之多層次貝式分析
Multi-level Bayesian Analysis of Policy Preference and Political Behavior in Taiwan
1.蔡佳泓
1.Chia-hung Tsai
1.國立政治大學選舉研究中心
1.Election Study Center, National Chengchi University
001,002,003,004
1.國立政治大學選舉研究中心
1.Election Study Center, National Chengchi University
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1.行政院國家科學委員會
1.National Science Council
A.14 計畫執行期間(起):2006-08-01
A.14 計畫執行期間(訖):2009-07-31
2006-11-282006-12-072007-11-262007-12-06
A.16 收到日期:2009-11-02
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台灣地區(不含金門、馬祖)年滿二十歲以上的成年公民

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2006年: 2413 2007年: 3035


2413/p2007
002
01
C.2 聯絡日期:2009-11-11
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1.國立政治大學選舉研究中心
1.Election Study Center, National Chengchi University
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C.7 資料公開日期:2009-08-01
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008
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1.公共政策
2.民意調查
3.共識
4.多層次分析
5.貝式定理
1.Bayes’ theorem
2.Consensus
3.Multilevel Analysis
4.Polls
5.Public Policy
 「台灣民眾之政策偏好與政治行為之多層次貝式分析」為國立政治大學選舉研究中心執行之調查計畫。旨在將主軸放在公共政策議題層面,結合個體資料與總體資 料以評估台灣民眾的對於政策的看法以及政策與民意的連結程度,企圖找出台灣社會的全國性及地方性的共識/歧異,並測量民意實際反映在政策的情況。

本資料檔為「台灣民眾之政策偏好與政治行為之多層次貝式分析」問卷資料,包含2006年與2007年兩次電訪問卷。問卷內容主要包括對公共事務的注意 程度、地方當前最急需的政策、對地方政府預算使用的看法、對各政黨在各政策層面表現評價、兩岸議題、對發展與環保議題的看法、對稅制與社福制度的看法、統 獨立場與國族認同、政黨偏好、個人社經背景資料;2007年問卷在上述題項外加入了對新制立委選舉的認知程度、對台灣經濟狀況評估等題項。

本計畫以台灣地區(不含金門、馬祖)年滿二十歲以上的成年人為研究母體。抽樣方法為電話簿抽樣法,以「中華電信住宅部94-95、95-06電話號碼 簿」為母體清冊,依據各縣市電話簿所刊電話數佔台灣地區電話總數比例,決定各縣市應抽之樣本數,以系統抽樣法抽出各縣市電話樣本後,再以隨機亂數修正電話 號碼末二碼或四碼,以求接觸為登陸電話的住戶。並按洪氏戶中抽樣原則抽出應受訪對象。本計畫分別2006年11月28日至12月7日,以及2007年11 月26日至12月6日執行,調查方法採電訪方式。最終樣本數分別為2006年:2,413案;2007年:3,035案。

For every democracy, consensus on basic values is critical to its stability. In Taiwan, however, people appear to have differing ideas about self-identification as Taiwanese, Chinese, or both. Consequently, the cross-Strait relations are a controversial issue because people have no agreement about whether Taiwan is part of China. It is also found that national identity strongly influences partisan choice. Therefore, it is important to keep track of national identity and its related issues. Beyond national identity, searching for consensus on socioeconomic issues has been an important task. It is widely believed that cross-cut social cleavages benefit democracy because the mass public has diversified opinions. Therefore, it is necessary to examine public opinions and drew possible consensus on the sub-national level, such as county or election districts. We aim to develop a multilevel Bayesian model that combines both polling and census data, thereby we can evaluate sub-level public opinions, such as county and township. The previous project that predicts the 2004 presidential results is extended to the legislative election in 2007, which will use single-member district. Our Bayesian analysis can simulate enough samples from each of the two-wave national polling data included in this project, predicting public opinions of every county and legislative district. After estimating the influence of each parameter, we use poststratification technique to predict behavior of sub-levels, such as party vote share of each county. The Ministry of Interior collected census data in 2000, which allows us to calculate the proportion of every category, such as gender, age, and education. Moreover, we can fit varying models with different dependent variables, such as multi-nomial logistic regression model.We also manage to collect the budgets of local governments and calculate the association between the budget and public opinions. In doing so, we can show the degree to which the local governments are responsive to public opinions. Additionally, we will code candidates』 issue positions printed on the election bulletin. With the simulated public opinion data, we can examine the extent to which the point of view of candidates is congruent public opinion. This project will contributes to finding public opinions at the local level, measuring representation, and predicting voting shares of the small districts.

D.16 完成檢誤日期:2010-01-25
D.17 預定釋出日期:2010-02-23
D.18 初次釋出日期:2010-02-23
D.19_1 最新版釋出日期:2010-02-23
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10.6141/TW-SRDA-E95052-1
http://efenci.srda.sinica.edu.tw/webview/index.jsp?object=http://efenci.srda.sinica.edu.tw:80/obj/fStudy/E95052
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