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E90039
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預算編製人員認知一致性與資源分配決策探討分析
The Examination and Analysis of Cognitive Consistency of Budget Makers and their Resource Allocation Decisions
1.郭昱瑩
1.Yu-ying Kuo
1.世新大學行政管理學系
1.Department of Public Pollcy and Management,Shih Hsin University
001,002,003,004
1.世新大學行政管理學系
1.Department of Public Pollcy and Management,Shih Hsin University
002
1.行政院國家科學委員會
1.National Science Council
A.14 計畫執行期間(起):2001-08-01
A.14 計畫執行期間(訖):2002-07-31
2001-12-102002-05-30
A.16 收到日期:2002-11-01
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所有執行營業稅預測之人員

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18 但因每位受訪者均須填答30個,視同取得30份資料


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C.2 聯絡日期:2002-11-04
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1.世新大學行政管理學系
1.Department of Public Pollcy and Management,Shih Hsin University
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C.7 資料公開日期:2004-08-01
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008
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1.人為判斷
2.中程計畫預算
3.判斷預測
4.社會判斷理論
5.稜鏡模型
1.Human Judgments
2.Judgment Forecasting
3.Lens Model
4.Mid-term Program Budgeting
5.Social Judgment Theory
 「中程計畫預算作業制度」於今年全面推行,而「中程收支推估」為其中重要一環,鑑於中程推估期程較長,且受限於外在政治、經濟、社會等環境變動影響,整 個預測過程包含較多不確定性,人為判斷或判斷預測相形重要,本研究因而深入探討判斷預測的內涵,文中先探討人為判斷的內涵;次而說明人為判斷與判斷預測於 中程預算收支推估的重要性;之後介紹社會判斷理論的內容及稜鏡模型架構;再以其為基礎,進行我國營業稅判斷預測的個案研究。研究結果呈現主計處與財政部的 專家預測者一致性與正確性相當高,可預期此兩單位對營業稅的中程預測結果應不致產生太大誤差。

The mid-term program budgeting system has been practiced since this year. Mid-term revenue and expenditure forecasting has been an important part underlying this new system. Because of the uncertainty and longer forecasting terms, human judgments and judgment forecasting tend to play a significant role in mid-term revenue and expenditure forecasting. Accordingly, the study explores the importance of judgment forecasting by virtue of Social Judgment Theory and the accompanying framework of Lens Model. A case study of the excise tax was administered to expert forecasters in the Directorate General of Budget Accounting and Statistics and the Ministry of Finance as well as graduate students. The results indicated that the forecasting consistency and accuracy of the expert forecasters are better than those of graduate students. It can be expected that the mid-term revenue and expenditure forecasting results released from these two agencies should be close and accurate, comparing to the graduate students.

D.16 完成檢誤日期:2004-04-27
D.17 預定釋出日期:2004-08-01
D.18 初次釋出日期:2004-08-03
D.19_1 最新版釋出日期:2004-08-03
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10.6141/TW-SRDA-E90039-1
https://efenci.srda.sinica.edu.tw/webview/index.jsp?object=https://efenci.srda.sinica.edu.tw:80/obj/fStudy/E90039
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