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家計單位機動車輛持有與使用特性之研究
A Study on Vehicle Ownership and Use in the Household Sector
1.周榮昌
1.Rong-chang Jou
1.逢甲大學交通工程與管理學系
1.Department of Transportaton and Communication Management Science,Feng Chia University
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1.逢甲大學交通工程與管理學系
1.Department of Transportaton and Communication Management Science,Feng Chia University
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1.行政院國家科學委員會
1.National Science Council
A.14 計畫執行期間(起):2001-08-01
A.14 計畫執行期間(訖):2002-07-31
2002-01-012002-02-20
A.16 收到日期:2002-07-01
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台中市家計單位(汽機車持有總數不超過三部者)

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C.2 聯絡日期:2002-07-02
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1.逢甲大學交通工程與管理學系
1.Department of Transportaton and Communication Management Science,Feng Chia University
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C.7 資料公開日期:2002-08-01
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1.汽機車持有與使用
2.固定及變動成本
3.直接及間接效用
4.基因演算法
1.Car/Motorbike Ownership and Use
2.Direct Utility
3.Fixed Costs
4.Genetic Algorithms
5.Indirect Utility
6.Variable Costs
本研究之目的在於建立家計單位機動車輛(包括汽車與機車)之持有與使用聯合決策模式,主要係延續周榮昌等人之模式,以個體經濟學之消費者行為 理論為基礎,考慮家計單位在特定之預算限制條件下(受汽機車之固定成本及變動成本所影響),使家計單位之效用最大化,並藉由雙對數需求函數、直接效用與間 接效用的轉換與比較,求得家計單位汽機車持有組合之機率。實證方面,本研究將以實際調查所得之台中市家戶持有機動車輛之資料帶入本研究所構建之模式,以基 因演算法進行參數的校估。應用模式校估所求得之參數值,進一步探討在所得、固定成本及變動成本改變的情況下,對家計單位機動車輛之持有與使用的影響程度。 根據校估結果顯示,在短期彈性方面,各種車輛持有順序之里程數所得彈性與固定成本彈性數值相同但符號相反,其絕對值介於.037~0.2,里程數之汽車變 動成本彈性為-0.1;機車變動成本彈性則為-0.04。在長期彈性方面,所得彈性值介於0.03~0.36,固定成本彈性介於0.003~0.16,變 動成本彈性則介於0.03~0.14。整體而言,里程數之所得彈性>變動成本彈性>固定成本彈性(以絕對值來看)。經由敏感度分析結果顯示, 機動車輛持有數在兩部以上者,其汽車之變動成本對里程數的影響最大,機車則是以所得對里程數影響最大,此結果說明當家計單位機動車輛持有數達某一水準時, 若欲控制汽機車之使用量,則應分別針對不同車種制訂不同的策略始能收其效果。

In this study, a model for the household decision on car/motorbike ownership and use is developed, estimated, and applied. The model takes car/motorbike both into account and is explicitly based on the microeconomic theory of consumer behavior, in which the fixed and variable car/motorbike costs are two main components of budget restriction. A kilometers of car(s), annual kilometers of motorbike(s), and other goods. The probabilities of car/motorbike ownership are the derived and calculated by comparing direct and indirect utilities. A disaggregate data set at the level of individual households was obtained based on the household interviews conducted in Taichung city in 2000. Genetic Algorithm is applied to calibrate the parameters, and further carry out the impact of changes in variable car/motorbikes, fixed car/motorbike costs, household income, and combinations of these on the household car/motorbike ownership and use. The estimation results show that in the short-term, the range off income elasticity of mileage is 0.037~0.2, the variable costs elasticity of car mileage is -0.1, and the variable costs elasticity of motorbike mileage is -0.04. On the other hand, in the long-term, the range of elasticity of mileage is 0.03~0.36, the range of fixed cost elasticity is 0.003~0.16, the range of variable cost elasticity is 0.03~0.14. In general, the long-term income elasticity is greater than the variable cost elasticity and the fixed cost elasticity. The policy analysis also indicates variable costs have more effects on reducing vehicle use. It is, therefore, a good direction for authorities to consider such strategies to improve transportation environment.

D.16 完成檢誤日期:2003-10-08
D.17 預定釋出日期:2003-10-23
D.18 初次釋出日期:2003-11-06
D.19_1 最新版釋出日期:2003-11-06
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10.6141/TW-SRDA-E90002-1
https://efenci.srda.sinica.edu.tw/webview/index.jsp?object=https://efenci.srda.sinica.edu.tw:80/obj/fStudy/E90002
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