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E89025
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中華職籃運動參與之預測模式
The Study of Prediction Model of Chinese Basketball Association Participation
1.施致平
1.Chih-pin Shih
1.國立臺灣師範大學體育學系
1.Department of Physical Education, National Taiwan Normal University
001,002,003,004
1.國立臺灣師範大學體育學系
1.Department of Physical Education, National Taiwan Normal University
002
1.行政院國家科學委員會
1.National Science Council
A.14 計畫執行期間(起):1999-08-01
A.14 計畫執行期間(訖):2000-07-31
A.16 收到日期:2001-09-13
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493


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C.2 聯絡日期:2001-09-20
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1.國立臺灣師範大學體育學系
1.Department of Physical Education, National Taiwan Normal University
1
C.7 資料公開日期:2000-08-01
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008
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001
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1.中華職籃
2.運動管理
3.預測模式
4.羅吉斯迴歸
1.Chinese Basketball Association (CBA)
2.Logistic Regression
3.Prediction Model
4.Sport Management
中 華職籃CBA為國內籃壇帶來盛會,但也因受母企業金融風暴與轉播權利金糾紛之影響,CBA中止第5年的球賽。因此,本研究之主要目的乃以CBA千禧紀念賽 之現場觀眾為受試者,探討觀眾參與職籃之情形,並以羅吉氏迴歸分析模式篩選影響因子,建立中華職籃參與預測模式。本研究以問卷調查方式,採階層抽樣方式, 抽取有效樣本493人,經分析發現,20歲以下之女學生為中華職籃的主要觀眾群,並從羅吉氏迴歸分析之勝數比(Odds Ratio) 發現,球隊認同、球賽娛樂效果及觀眾個人喜愛是影響觀眾參與中華職籃的正向預測因子;而球隊認同及觀眾個人喜愛是影響觀眾購買職籃產品之正向預測因子,然 經濟因素則為負向預測因子;球館舒適性、球賽精彩性、球賽刺激與緊張度及文宣造勢活動是影響觀眾滿意度的正向預測因子;另則,球隊認同與整體滿意度則為影 響觀眾對中華職籃未來發展信心之正向預測因子。有鑑於此,依據結果顯示,職籃公司應以20歲以下之女學生為經營主體,以球隊認同為經營主軸,以滿足觀眾需 求為經營方針,如此,方可達到永續經營的目的。

With unremitting endeavor and meanwhile with passionate expectation, the Chinese Basketball Association (CBA) brought a gala to the domestic basketball circle. However, the CBA had no other option but to suspend its 5th season due to the financial difficulties of the parent enterprises as well as the dispute of televised right fees. As a result , the spectators of the CBA millennium commemoration games were collected as the subjects for this study. The purpose aimed at understanding the reasons of spectators\' involvement in the CBA. Also, the logistic regression was utilized to sift the influential factors and to develop the prediction model of CBA participation. The questionnaire was used as the nstrumentation of this study. A total of 493 valid subjects were selected by using a stratified sampling technique. The results indicated that females who were students and under the age of 20 were the CBA target audiences . Based upon the Odds Ratio of logistic regression, this study found that team identification , game entertainment , and spectators\' preference were positive predictive factors related to spectators\' involvement in the CBA. Secondly , identification and spectators\' preference were the main predictive factors in terms of spectators\' purchasing CBA merchandise; on the contrary, personal economics was a negative factor. Thirdly, this study found that stadium accessibility, attractiveness of the games, stimulation of the games , and propaganda of the games were positive predictive factors in fulfilling spectators\' gratification after their attendance at the games. Finally , team identification and entire gratification were the positive predictive factors with regard to spectator\'s confidence in CBA\'s future development. Based on the research results , the CBA should target its audiences on females who are students and under the age of 20, strengthen the spectators\' sense of team identification , and satisfy their gratification and expectation for the CBA. In so doing, the CBA will be a perpetual enterprise without doubt.

D.16 完成檢誤日期:2002-07-22
D.17 預定釋出日期:0000-00-00
D.18 初次釋出日期:2002-09-26
D.19_1 最新版釋出日期:2002-09-26
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10.6141/TW-SRDA-E89025-1
http://efenci.srda.sinica.edu.tw/webview/index.jsp?object=http://efenci.srda.sinica.edu.tw:80/obj/fStudy/E89025
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