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E88019
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住戶形成與住宅需求預測
Prediction of Housing Demand with the Model of Household Formation
1.胡志平
1.Chich-ping Hu
1.中華大學建築與都市計畫系
1.Department of Architecture and Urban Design, Chung Hua University
001,002,003,004
1.中華大學建築與都市計畫系
1.Department of Architecture and Urban Design, Chung Hua University
002
1.行政院國家科學委員會
1.National Science Council
A.14 計畫執行期間(起):1998-08-01
A.14 計畫執行期間(訖):1999-07-31
1999-04-011999-05-31
A.16 收到日期:1999-10-03
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新竹縣住戶單位

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C.2 聯絡日期:1999-10-16
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1.中華大學建築與都市計畫系
1.Department of Architecture and Urban Design, Chung Hua University
1
C.7 資料公開日期:2000-08-01
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008
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1.戶長率
2.住戶形成
3.住戶消失
4.住戶規模
5.住宅需求
6.家庭行為模式
1.Family Model
2.Household Dissolution
3.Household Formation
4.Household Size
5.Housing Demand
完 善的住宅計畫與政策之落實,其關鍵乃在於市場機制能否正常的運作。然而住宅市場是供、需雙方均衡交易的結果,錯誤與不當的市場干預及預期,將會導致住宅市 場的扭曲,更將招致住宅計畫與政策的失敗。 因此,正確而且實際的預測市場的住宅需求,是本研究重要的目標之一。本研究以「戶長率」為技術工具,建立「住戶形成」預估模式並且進而預測「住宅需求」 量。台灣地區有關住宅需求的相關研究,多依個體經濟構建行為模式,討論個體住宅服務需求水準,較少依總體經濟建構「住戶形成」及「住戶消失」預測模式,而 進一步推估「住屋單元」需求量及市場「住宅需求」量。 台灣地區現今不論就國際局勢如東南亞及南韓的金融風暴、或就海峽兩岸情勢如兩岸是否就重要事務性或政治性議題進行談判及兩岸在國際經濟上是競爭或合作、或 就台灣內部社會治安及總體經濟發展如高鐵興建在即及擄人勒索強盜暴力事件,未來市場充滿了許多的不確定因素,相對增加住宅投資的風險,正確與實際的住宅需 求預測相對於住宅計畫及住宅政策益形重要。

It is the key request, market transaction, results in the success on housing program and policy. The wrong and inappropriate intervention will lead to the distortion of housing market, the outcome of supply and demand, and the unexpected failure on housing program and policy ultimately. Consequently, proper as well as practical prediction on housing demand is one of the most important objects in this study. Headship rate method, the very technique in this study, will be used to establish the forecasted model on “household formation and dissolution” and in the further to predict the quantity of housing demanded. The related studies on housing demand, in Taiwan, almost devoted themselves into microeconomic behavior and the discussion on the level solved of housing services. Few of the studies, from the macroeconomic point of view, set up the “household formation and dissolution” model to predict the demanded quantity of ”dwelling unit” as well as the market quantity of housing demanded. No matter how the international situation, the financial crisis of Southern-East Asia and Korea for example, the circumstance of both-strait China, the internal social security, and the economic development will be in Taiwan. It will increase the uncertainty as well as the risk while investing on housing. Proper and practical prediction on housing demand will be still more important for the housing program and policy relatively in Taiwan.

D.16 完成檢誤日期:2000-03-29
D.17 預定釋出日期:2000-08-01
D.18 初次釋出日期:2000-08-18
D.19_1 最新版釋出日期:2000-08-18
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10.6141/TW-SRDA-E88019-1
https://efenci.srda.sinica.edu.tw/webview/index.jsp?object=https://efenci.srda.sinica.edu.tw:80/obj/fStudy/E88019
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