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E87048
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第十三屆縣市長選舉候選人勝選因素分析
The Analysis of the Candidates\' Winning Factors in the 13th Mayor Election
1.何金銘
1.Chin-ming Ho
1.國立中山大學中山學術研究中心
1.Sun Yat-Sen Center for Policy Studies, National Sun Yat-Sen University
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1.國立中山大學中山學術研究中心
1.Sun Yat-Sen Center for Policy Studies, National Sun Yat-Sen University
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1.行政院國家科學委員會
1.National Science Council
A.14 計畫執行期間(起):1997-08-01
A.14 計畫執行期間(訖):1998-07-31
1997-11-011997-12-31
A.16 收到日期:1999-07-05
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台灣省各縣市合格選民

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C.2 聯絡日期:1999-07-07
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1.國立中山大學中山學術研究中心
1.Sun Yat-Sen Center for Policy Studies, National Sun Yat-Sen University
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C.7 資料公開日期:1998-08-01
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1.台灣
2.民意測驗
3.投票行為
4.候選人
5.勝選因素
6.選舉預測
1.Candidate
2.Election Prediction
3.Public Opinion Poll
4.Taiwan
5.Voting Behavior
6.Winning Factor
本研究假設候選人的出生地、教育程度、政黨推薦、政見訴求、候選人形象、現任公職、支持團體、競選活動、競選人數、陣營分裂等十個變數與候選人的得票率及當 選與否有關,經利用台灣省二十一縣市第十三屆縣市長選舉各候選人的實證資料探討候選人的勝選因素,結果發現:競選人數、政黨推薦、現任公職、支持團體、候 選人形象、競選活動、政見訴求七個變數與得票率顯著相關,但出生地、教育程度與陣營分裂三個變數與得票率之相關性則未達顯著水準進一步以複迴歸分析發現, 影響得票率的主要因素依次是政見訴求、競選活動、支持團體與競選人數,這四個變數共解釋了得票率 87.89﹪的變異量。另現任公職、支持團體、候選人形 象、政見訴求、政黨推薦、競選活動六個變數與「當選與否」顯著相關,但競選人數、出生地、教育程度與陣營分裂四個變數與「當選與否」之相關性則未達顯著水 準進一步以羅吉斯迴歸分析發現,影響「當選與否」的主要因素依次是政見訴求與現任公職。以上結果顯現:選民的投票取向雖然一定程度地反映了候選人的勝選因 素,但兩者之間仍存在著一些落差大體上,除了投票取向因素外,候選人的勝敗還受一些總體與結構面向因素之影響。

This research assumes that ten variables are related to the percentage of votes the candidate will have and whether he will carry the election. The ten variables are the candidate\'s birthplace, education level, party nomination, policy appeals, image, present government position, supporting groups, campaign , the number of candidates, and internal split-off. Through analysis of the empirical data of the 13th mayor election from 21 cities, it shows that the number of candidates, party nomination, present government position, supporting groups, image , campaign , policy appeals , totally 7 variables have significant correlation with the percentage of votes the candidate will have. However,the other 3 factors, the candidate\'s birthplace, education level, and internal split-off, do not. When we further analyze the data using multiple regression, we find that the main factors affecting the votes gaining percentage in order are policy appeals, campaign, supporting groups and the number of the candidates. These four factors explain 87.89% of the variance. In addition, the present government position, supporting groups , image, policy appeals , party nomination , ampaign have significant correlation with \" whether the candidate will carry the election. \"However, the other 4 factors do not. When we use logistic egression to further analyze the data, we find that the main actors affecting \" whether the candidate will carry the election \" are policy appeals and present government position in order.From the previous discussion, we can conclude that : the winning factors of a candidate are only partly explained by the voting preference of voters. To sum up, other than voters\' voting reference, whether the candidate will carry the election is still affected by macro and structural factors.

D.16 完成檢誤日期:1999-12-10
D.17 預定釋出日期:1999-12-31
D.18 初次釋出日期:2000-01-01
D.19_1 最新版釋出日期:2000-01-01
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10.6141/TW-SRDA-E87048-1
https://efenci.srda.sinica.edu.tw/webview/index.jsp?object=https://efenci.srda.sinica.edu.tw:80/obj/fStudy/E87048
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