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E10255
3
020
脆弱度、回復力與生態足跡之鏈結:雲林縣之實證研究
Integration of Vulnerability, Resilience and Ecological Footprint: an Empirical Study of Yunlin County
1.李永展
1.Yung-jaan Lee
1.財團法人中華經濟研究院第三研究所
1.Chunghua Institution for Economic Research
001,002,003,004
1.財團法人中華經濟研究院第三研究所
1.Chunghua Institution for Economic Research
004
1.科技部
1.Ministry of Science and Technology
A.14 計畫執行期間(起):2013-08-01
A.14 計畫執行期間(訖):2015-08-31
2015-02-012015-08-20
A.16 收到日期:2015-12-25
2
雲林縣各鄉鎮市總人口數

1

393


393
001
01
C.2 聯絡日期:2015-12-29
2
1.財團法人中華經濟研究院第三研究所
1.Chunghua Institution for Economic Research
1
C.7 資料公開日期:2015-12-30
2
008
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1
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001
1,2
1.自然脆弱度
2.社會脆弱度
3.回復力
4.生態足跡
5.永續發展
1.biophysical vulnerability
2.social vulnerability
3.resilience
4.ecological footprint
5.sustainable development
目 前探討全球氣候變遷對應各種地理環境的課題日益增多,顯示各界重視氣候變遷的影響,而台灣受島國地理條件限制,使整體環境的敏感度更高,尤其是西部沿海地 區易淹水一帶聚集在地層下陷嚴重的雲嘉南地區,其中以雲林縣地層下陷最嚴重,也是最容易受到氣候變遷衝擊的地區。另一方面,雲林縣以農立縣,農業人口及專 業農戶居全國第一,但由於台灣的經濟發展投注在農村的公共建設不足,居住環境不佳,導致城鄉不均衡發展,鄉村被邊緣化,農業所得普遍偏低,人口外流,從業 人口老化。雲林縣因地層下陷及海平面上升之威脅,致災危險性更增加,若再探討以農業為主的雲林縣,其社會脆弱度是否受自然脆弱度之影響而隨之變動,則分析 變因又將影響回復力對策的擬定。 此外,本二年期計畫也進行生態足跡分析,探討社區居民碳足跡及水足跡大小,作為與脆弱度及回復力互相評析、探討的工具。質言之,本計畫第一年度將探討雲林 縣的自然脆弱度與社會脆弱度之關係,並擬定回復力之對策;第二年度將分析降尺度到鄉鎮市及個人的生態足跡是否與自然脆弱度、社會脆弱度及回復力有關;最後 在客觀與主觀的雙重檢視下,從自然、社會脆弱度與生態足跡之整合,研擬出對應雲林縣氣候變遷課題的回復力對策。 本計畫第一年度除進行文獻回顧及理論分析外,利用國家災害防救科技中心的自然脆弱度資料,透過圖層分析將雲林縣的自然脆弱度分為高中低三個等級,並透 過15位專家學者二回合的模糊德爾菲調查法,建構社會脆弱度指標架構(包含20個指標),再以模糊層級分析法分配這些指標的權重,取得鄉鎮市層級資料的指 標共有14個。本計畫以這14個指標進行社會脆弱度分析,並透過疊圖方法,將自然脆弱度及社會脆弱度綜合評估,研究結果得出V1-V5的脆弱度等級,並與 國家災害防救科技中心的綜合脆弱度加以評比,得出本計畫與國家災害防救科技中心的敏感度表現一致,唯在社會脆弱度的指標差異造就部分鄉鎮市有些微的層級差 異,最後特別針對脆弱度較嚴重的鄉鎮市(V4-V5等級),分別研擬相關的回復力對策及調適計畫。 本計畫第二年度重點著重於個人生態足跡之問卷調查,並採用單因子變異數分析各鄉鎮市分區、自然脆弱度、社會脆弱度及綜合脆弱度和個人生態足跡之間的關係。 研究結果顯示,雲林縣之個人每日碳足跡、個人每日生態足跡與各鄉鎮市地區有相關性,個人每日生態足跡與自然脆弱度層級未達顯著相關性,但個人每日碳足跡與 社會脆弱度層級及綜合脆弱度層級達顯著相關性。 本計畫將雲林縣各鄉鎮市地區個人生態足跡依序排列分為高中低三種層級,研究結果發現個人生態足跡高的鄉鎮市多為人口密集、都市化程度較高的鄉鎮市,包括虎 尾鎮、斗六市、麥寮鄉、西螺鎮、北港鎮、斗南鎮及二崙鄉。最後,本計畫將第二年度研究成果與第一年度的綜合脆弱度結果(V1-V5)進行交叉分析,針對位 於高中低生態足跡層級與高綜合脆弱度層級區域(V4-V5)的鄉鎮市提出因地制宜的回復力政策,以建構韌性城鄉並邁向永續社會。

Up to the present, there are increasing discussions and studies regarding the effects of climate change to numerous environments. This phenomenon indicates that the society emphasizes climate change impacts seriously. The environmental sensitivity and vulnerability are significant due to the island geographical condition of Taiwan. The flooding areas congregate in the Southwest Coast of Taiwan where the serious land subsidence problems exist, and the most serious area locates in Yunlin County. Furthermore, Yunlin County has the most agricultural population and households in Taiwan. However, the economic development conventionally neglects rural public services, resulting in poor living environment, unbalanced rural-urban development, and low household incomes. Moreover, population decreases rapidly and more aging population exists in Yunlin County. Because of the flooding areas and the rising sea level, Yunlin County has a high susceptibility to numerous disasters. Furthermore, whether the social vulnerability is to be affected by biophysical vulnerability and further affects the resilience strategies is another important research issue for this project. Ecological Footprint analyses are also adopted to examine the carbon footprint and water footprint and their relationships to biophysical vulnerability, social vulnerability and resilience. Therefore, this project explores the case of Yunlin County regarding its relationships with vulnerability, resilience and ecological footprint. Also, planning the resilience strategies for Yunlin County is one important achievement. Most Ecological Footprint analyses focus on the national level. Specially, this project examines the Ecological Footprint downscaling to the township and personal level. In essence, the first year of this project explores the relationships between biophysical vulnerability and social vulnerability and resilience strategies are proposed accordingly. The second year of this project will examine the ecological footprint downscaling to the township and personal level and explore its relationships with biophysical vulnerability, social vulnerability and resilience. In short, under the double check of objective and subjective perspectives, this project will propose better and more appropriate resilience strategies to cope with climate change challenges for sustainable development of Yunlin County. In addition to the literature review, this project adopts biophysical vulnerability data from the National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction (NCDR) to analyze high-medium-low vulnerability in Yunlin County. As to the social vulnerability analysis, this project invites 15 researchers to answer two-run Delphi questionnaires. A social vulnerability indicator framework (including 20 indicators) is established. This project further carries out the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) to examine the weights of social vulnerability indicators. For social vulnerability, 14 indicators are analyzed at the county level. This project adopts the overlay mapping approach to examine comprehensive evaluations of social vulnerability and biophysical vulnerability and categorizes the outcomes into V1 to V5 vulnerability categories. Comparing vulnerability categories with those of NCDR shows that the sensitivity of the results of this project is mostly consistent with the results of NCDR. Some minor differences exist due to the different structure of social indicators of vulnerability in this project. Furthermore, appropriate resilience strategies and adaptation plans are proposed for Yunlin County. The second-year project focuses on the questionnaire survey of the EF of individuals. One-way analysis of variance is adopted to examine the relationships among township classification, biophysical and social vulnerability, integrated vulnerability and EF of the individuals. The results show that personal carbon footprint per day and personal EF per day have a statistically significant relationship with township classification. Personal EF per day and biophysical vulnerability show no statistical significance. However, personal carbon footprint, social vulnerability and integrated vulnerability have significant statistical relationships. The second-year project categorizes three levels of EF (low-medium-high) in different townships of Yunlin County. Results show that townships with high EF of individuals are located in highly populated and urbanized areas, including Huwei, Douliou, Mailiao, Xiluo, Beigang, Dounan and Erlun. Furthermore, the results from the second-year project are compared with the results of the integrated vulnerability (V1-V5) from the first-year project. Appropriate localized resilience strategies are proposed for townships with different EF of individuals and high integrated vulnerability (V4-V5) in the hope to construct a resilient county for Yunlin.

D.16 完成檢誤日期:2016-03-01
D.17 預定釋出日期:2016-03-07
D.18 初次釋出日期:2016-03-10
D.19_1 最新版釋出日期:2016-03-10
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1
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10.6141/TW-SRDA-E10255-1
http://efenci.srda.sinica.edu.tw/webview/index.jsp?object=http://efenci.srda.sinica.edu.tw:80/obj/fStudy/E10255
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