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E10021
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災害經驗與風險資訊對家戶減災整備及風險暴露行為之影響研究(I)
The Effects of Disaster Experience and Risk Information on Mitigation, Preparedness and Hazard Exposure Behaviors of Households
1.郭彥廉
1.Yen-lien Kuo
1.國立成功大學經濟學系
1.Department of Economics, National Cheng Kung University
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1.國立成功大學經濟學系
1.Department of Economics, National Cheng Kung University
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1.行政院國家科學委員會
1.National Science Council
A.14 計畫執行期間(起):2011-08-01
A.14 計畫執行期間(訖):2012-07-31
2012-05-182012-07-30
A.16 收到日期:2012-11-23
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台南市10個淹水潛勢較高的區(新化區、新市區、將軍區、學甲區、七股區、仁德區、北門區、永康區、安南區、南區),其中淹水潛勢面積涵蓋里面積比例較大之里

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C.2 聯絡日期:2012-11-26
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1.國立成功大學經濟學系
1.Department of Economics, National Cheng Kung University
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C.7 資料公開日期:2014-08-01
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1.水災減災
2.風險知覺
3.颱風洪水險
4.防水閘門
5.環境脆弱度
6.電視新聞傳播
1.Flood Mitigation
2.Risk Perception
3.Flood Insurance
4.Floodgate
5.Environmental Vulnerability
6.TV News
本研究建立水災風險知覺與減行為模型。經主成本分析可以發現風險知覺主要分為水災影響程度及發生機會兩個面向。前者透過成本分析法形成一指標,並進行複 迴歸分析,結果發現五年內最高淹水深度、無政府單位援助而感到無助、此地居住年數、淹水水源、是否觀察鄰近河川水溝水位、從電視新聞取得災害資訊等變數達 到顯著。水災發生機會之複迴歸結果顯示五年內淹水經驗、五年內最高淹水深度、淹水水源、是否觀察鄰近河川水溝水位、從電視新聞取得災害資訊等變數達到顯 著。此結果顯示風險知覺會受環境脆弱度及資訊來源影響,鄰近淹水源及從電視新聞取得災害資訊均會顯著地增加風險知覺。這顯示透過揭露環境脆弱度資訊,並且 將危害透過電視新聞傳播將可以影響民眾的風險知覺。在家戶是否願意投保颱洪險的羅吉斯迴歸分析結果發現,年保費、水災影響程度指標、保颱風洪水險有沒有用、教育年數、所得對數及觀察鄰近河川水溝水位達 到顯著。對居住於一樓且尚未裝設防水閘門的家戶而言,是否願意裝設防水閘門會受到水災影響程度指標、願不意做水災防災準備、裝設防水閘門有沒有用、教育年 數、所得對數、假設金額的影響。這兩項分析均印證所得對減災具有正面影響、價格具有負面影響、風險知覺有正向影響、結果效能有正面影響、教育程度越高者越 願意防災。這結果表示,若將來政府打算進一步推廣投保颱洪險或裝設防水閘門,除透過前述增進風險知覺的方法以外,還需要強調民眾這些減災措施的有效性。

This research built models of risk perception and flood mitigation behaviorsand though a survey of 600 residents in Taiana City. The principle analysis found that the risk perception can be separated into 2 dimensions – the impact and the probability of flood. The multivariate regression models found that the past experience, residential years, flood sources, observing water level, TV new watching can significantly affect people ’s risk perception. These results show that risk perception can be affected by environmental vulneenvironmental and the communication of hazard informati rability and the communication of hazard informati rability and the communication of hazard information. In order to improve risk perception, the government can disclose flood vulnerability though TV news, that is more effective.The survey of this research ask residents whether they willing to buy flood insurance and install floodgate under some specific price. The logistic regression models are used for analysis. The results show that the price, income , education, risk , perception , outcome efficacy of insurance or floodgate have significant effects on buying flood insurance and floodgate installation. That means, besides improving risk perception, the government should communicate the effectiveness of these mitigation measures to residents.

D.16 完成檢誤日期:2013-05-09
D.17 預定釋出日期:2014-08-01
D.18 初次釋出日期:2014-08-01
D.19_1 最新版釋出日期:2014-08-01
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10.6141/TW-SRDA-E10021-1
http://efenci.srda.sinica.edu.tw/webview/index.jsp?object=http://efenci.srda.sinica.edu.tw:80/obj/fStudy/E10021
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