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E10005
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高速公路駕駛人交通資訊影響下路徑選擇行為之研究:應用累計期望理論
Freeway Drivers\' Route Choice Behavior under the Influence of Real-time Traffic Information: Application of CPT Model
1.周榮昌
1.Rong-chang Jou
1.國立暨南國際大學土木工程學系(所)
1.Department of Civil Engineering, National Chi Nan university
001,002,003,004
1.國立暨南國際大學土木工程學系(所)
1.Department of Civil Engineering, National Chi Nan university
002
1.行政院國家科學委員會
1.National Science Council
A.14 計畫執行期間(起):2011-08-01
A.14 計畫執行期間(訖):2012-07-31
2011-05-102011-05-18
A.16 收到日期:2012-10-08
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台灣地區高速公路小汽車駕駛人

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C.2 聯絡日期:2013-01-02
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1.國立暨南國際大學土木工程學系(所)
1.Department of Civil Engineering, National Chi Nan university
1
同意自計畫執行結束日期起立即公開

C.7 資料公開日期:2012-08-01
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1.即時交通資訊
2.累計期望理論
3.風險規避
4.風險承擔
1.Real-time Traffic Information
2.Cumulative Prospect Theory
3.Loss Aversion
4.Risk Seeking
近10年來網路通訊設備技術發展迅速,對於私人用戶可藉由3.5G行動網路或是各都會區中的Wi-Fi熱點獲取個人所需資訊,為能方便及有效率地抵達目的地 而對於即時交通資訊的需求有所提升。深入討論駕駛人與交通資訊使用之相關性,如何提供更細膩且更準確之加值服務,為目前ATIS領域在新科技引進後較為缺 乏且建議應為值得重視之方向。然而在旅行時間不確定下,駕駛人的選擇行為可能發生不同於最大效用理論架構下之決策,如在旅行時間變異程度低之下有風險規避 (risk-aversion)行為,在旅行時間變異高之下則可能有風險承擔(risk-seeking)之決策,因此在模式應用以累計期望理論 (Cumulative prospect theory, CPT)於路徑選擇行為之探討,分析駕駛人在風險性以及不確定性考量下之駕駛決策行為;本研究將其應用於多點決策並搭配真實路網以及歷史交通車流資料,設 計資訊提供情境,反映真實狀況下之選擇行為;同時校估台灣地區CPT模式之相關參數係數,比較過去研究之參數結果與本研究參數結果。於學術研究上,則透過 發展有別於最大效用理論之路徑選擇模式以有效捕捉駕駛人反應探討相關層面議題;於實務應用之技術上,則可以本研究結果作為未來駕駛人選擇行為預估之相關參 考。

Communication technologies’ innovations and infrastructures are rapidly improved during recent decade; private individuals can access real-time information through Wi-Fi or 3.5G tel-communication easily and this is coupled with increasing the demand of real-time traffic information. Hence, investigating the relationship between driver behavior and traffic information usage to improve value-added real-time information in detail after new technology introduced into transportation application is another valuable and important issue.Driver’s decision making under the uncertainty of travel time, cumulative prospect theory (CPT) provides another way that can help to improve our understanding of choices in the area of travel behavior. Such as driver can be risk-aversion even when there is low uncertainty of travel time; on the contrary, driver can be risk-seeking when the uncertainty of travel time is high. Based on this concept, this study applied CPT to investigate highway driver’s route choice behavior. Real freeway route system with historical travel time data is displayed on the computer-aided questionnaires and used to collect drivers’ node-to-node responses under travel time uncertainty. The study results can estimate parameters’ coefficient of CPT in Taiwan and capture drivers’ risky behaviors to future prediction on route switching behavior.

D.16 完成檢誤日期:2013-02-27
D.17 預定釋出日期:2013-03-20
D.18 初次釋出日期:2013-03-20
D.19_1 最新版釋出日期:2013-03-20
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10.6141/TW-SRDA-E10005-1
http://efenci.srda.sinica.edu.tw/webview/index.jsp?object=http://efenci.srda.sinica.edu.tw:80/obj/fStudy/E10005
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